AUSTIN (KXAN) — Nine months later the winter storm, many Central Texans are all the same dealing with the emotional backwash.

"I don't even recall I can plow on the fireplace," says Georgetown resident Elizabeth Stratton. "I'm like, pretty traumatized past how long nosotros sabbatum in that location for and how cold nosotros were."

Elizabeth endured the February 2022 winter storm with her 8-month-old son. Her husband Owen was deployed abroad.

Elizabeth Stratton and her son bundled up outside their home.
Elizabeth Stratton struggled to keep her baby warm during the winter storm. (Courtesy Elizabeth Stratton)

As the temperature inside her habitation dropped to 38°, Elizabeth had to effigy out how to keep her baby warm and fed.

"All the nutrient is going bad in the fridge," Stratton said. "My chest milk, that took me forever to pump because I wasn't supplying enough, was going to be ruined."

The female parent and child spent hours sitting on the bathroom flooring, keeping warm using the mist from her running shower.

"I could tell he was really cold, too," Stratton said. "It was just hard. Really hard, emotionally."

"Yous've got to kind of keep it together, because you're a mom," Stratton said. "I am then scared we are going to have something like that happen again."

Will we have another winter tempest this flavor?

New wintertime outlooks issued Nov. xviii past the NOAA Climate Prediction Heart predict a warmer and drier-than-normal winter in Central Texas.

El Nino and La Nina patterns fluctuate since 1990
The Oceanic Niño alphabetize tracks the El Niño and La Niña patterns over the by thirty years. (KXAN Graphic)

The main reason for these predictions is the La Niña pattern present in the Pacific Ocean, with cooler-than-normal h2o close to the Equator. But, this same La Niña pattern was in place terminal winter when nosotros had the historic Feb winter storm.

Then, what are the odds of an farthermost freeze happening again this winter?

Did La Niña cause the Feb 2022 Wintertime Storm?

Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon is the State Climatologist for Texas and an good on how the El Niño/La Niña bicycle affects Texas weather.

The jet stream is a strong wind current that circles the Northern Hemisphere and keeps frigid air near the north pole.
The jet stream is a potent current of air current that circles the Northern Hemisphere and keeps frigid air well-nigh the n pole. (KXAN Graphic)

"La Niña is basically the opposite of El Niño," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "El Niño is when the temperatures in the tropical Pacific become unusually warm. La Niña, they get unusually common cold."

The colder body of water water in the Eastern Pacific drives the wintertime tempest runway north.

"With the jet stream farther north, we tend to have fewer storms," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "And so we get less precipitation, fewer cold fronts, temperatures tend to be warmer on average."

So how did Central Texas go a historic cold boom and snowstorm during a La Niña winter?

Dr. Nielsen-Gammon says the intrusion of Chill air straight from the N Pole was caused past a "sudden stratospheric warming result," which is completely unrelated to La Niña.

"The polar vortex that normally sits over the pole gets disrupted, breaks into ii pieces," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "And, when that happens, it sort of throws off the weather around the hemisphere. And, some place or another is going to get something unusual — can't really tell who it is going to be. This time, information technology turned out to be us."

The "double-dip" La Niña and winter atmospheric condition

2021/2022 has a double-dip La Nina
KXAN predicted the 2021/2022 "double-dip" La Niña before this year (KXAN Graphic)

What'south different well-nigh this winter is that information technology is our second-sequent La Niña winter. There was a moderate La Niña design in identify last winter, it weakened over the summertime, simply now it's intensifying again. This "double dip" La Niña is something we get-go warned you may happen before this year.

Our analysis found during the 2nd dip of La Niña, Primal Texas winter weather is:

  • 0.93°F warmer
  • Brings ane.eight" less snow
  • Features 6 fewer freezes

…than during the starting time La Niña winter.

We also institute the second consecutive La Niña winter is:

  • 1.23°F warmer
  • Brings 0.18" less snow
  • Features 2 fewer freezes

…than an average winter, regardless of El Niño/La Niña status.

A second La Niña is usually warmer and drier than the first La Niña and a typical Central Texas winter. (KXAN Graphic)
A second La Niña is normally warmer and drier than the showtime La Niña and a typical Primal Texas winter. (KXAN Graphic)

Note: This trend is robust even when the abnormally common cold and snowy February 2022 is removed from the "starting time La Niña" dataset. Whorl to the bottom of the story to see the full information and which winters were analyzed.

Does this mean we might non take another wintertime storm?

This is all to say that a massive winter tempest is less likely to happen this winter.

"Historically, the trend nosotros've seen for farthermost temperatures in Texas in the wintertime is they've gotten quite a chip warmer," Dr. Nielsen-Gammon said. "The cold air outbreak we had last twelvemonth was really an exception. And, as nigh equally we tin can tell, that trend volition continue, so that hopefully what we had concluding year will remain exceptional."

Every bit Dr. Nielsen-Gammon mentions, the coming La Niña winter is happening against the background of a warming climate. And fifty-fifty though climate change is leading to warmer winters overall, new research shows that climate change tin actually make the occasional, farthermost cold snap happen more ofttimes in the United States.

Stratton reflects back to those brutally cold Feb days and says she can inappreciably believe what she so many others had to go through.

"It took me awhile to go back to feeling like I could go home, and it'due south OK to go home, and we're going to have rut. Nosotros're going to have electric," she said. "I will never take that stuff for granted every again."

La Niña winter data analysis — How we crunched the numbers

The First Warning Atmospheric condition squad analyzed Austin/Camp Mabry conditions during double-dip La Niña events dating back to the 1990s, separating the first and 2nd-consecutive La Niña winters to see if the resulting local atmospheric condition are different.

An boilerplate winter at Camp Mabry (1991-2020) brings Dec highs and lows of 63.9/43.four degrees, January highs and lows of 62.5/41.8 degrees, and February highs and lows of 66.5/45.8 degrees.

December averages two.72″ of rainfall, Jan averages ii.64″, and Feb typically brings i.89″ of pelting. Twenty percent of our annual rainfall falls in the winter months — our driest season of the iv.

Austin/Army camp Mabry typically records 0.ii″ of snowfall per wintertime, and sees 12 nights of freezing temperatures.

Here are the trends of the double-dip La Niñas:

  • Wintertime '95/'96 and '96/'97 — Moderate La Niña followed by weak La Niña
  • Winter '98/'99 and '99/'00 — Potent La Niña followed by strong La Niña
  • Winter '07/'08 and '08/'09 — Strong La Niña followed by weak/moderate La Niña
  • Winter 'ten/'eleven and 'eleven/'12 — Potent La Niña followed by moderate La Niña
  • Winter '20/'21 — Moderate/potent La Niña, predicted to lead into a weak/moderate La Niña this winter

Below, explore the data nosotros analyzed:

First La Niña Dip Information

Fourth dimension flow Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
Dec '95 1.3 -2.21 0 iv
Jan '96 -1.7 -2.58 0 x
Feb '96 ane.vi -1.27 0.3 v
Overall 0.four° (warmer) -vi.06″ (drier) 0.3″ 19
Dec '98 -0.8 -1.xvi Trace 6
Jan '99 three.3 -ii.44 NA 6
Feb '99 six.two -1.86 NA 0
Overall 2.nine° (warmer) -5.46″ (drier) Trace 12
Dec '07 1.1 -2.05 0 six
Jan '08 -ane.viii -one.82 0 6
February '08 three.3 -1.38 0 2
Overall 0.867° (warmer) -v.25″ (drier) 0" 14
Dec '10 0.6 -one.93 0 4
Jan '11 -2.5 0.28 0 vi
Feb 'xi -i -1.41 0.ix 9
Overall -0.967° (cooler) -3.06″ (drier) 0.nine" 19
Dec 'twenty 1.3 ane.35 0 2
Jan '21 1.4 -1.01 1.5 4
Feb '21 (winter storm) -7.8 0.02 half-dozen.4 ten
Overall -1.7° (cooler) 0.36″ (wetter) 7.9" sixteen

Overall kickoff La Niña wintertime averages

Temp. Precip . Snowfall Freezes
0.3° (warmer) -iii.894″ (drier) 1.82″ 16

Excluding abnormally cold/snowy February. '21

Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
0.91° (warmer) -iii.932″ (drier) 0.54″ fourteen

Second La Niña Dip Data

Fourth dimension Period Temp. Precip. Snow Freezes
Dec '96 one.iii -0.53 T 6
Jan '97 -3.4 -1.57 T 12
February '97 -3.one 2.05 NA 0
Overall -one.73° (cooler) -0.05″ (drier) Trace 18
Dec '99 2 -1.57 NA 1
Jan '00 3.1 0.21 NA 5
Feb '00 6 -0.xiv NA 0
Overall three.7° (warmer) -1.5″ (drier) N/A half dozen
Dec '08 -0.1 -2.32 0.1 4
January '09 1.3 -1.9 0 half dozen
Feb '09 4.8 -0.42 0 1
Overall 2° (warmer) -4.64″ (drier) 0.1″ 11
Dec 'xi -one.4 ii.21 0 iii
January '12 2.9 2.06 Trace three
February '12 1.iii 1.fifteen Trace 1
Overall 0.933° (warmer) 5.42″ (wetter) Trace 7

Overall second La Niña winter averages

Temp . Precip . Snow Freezes
1.225 deg warmer -0.193″ (drier) 0.025″ 10.v

Overall, the second-consecutive La Niña winter is warmer, features fewer freezes and less snow than the first La Niña winter. The second-consecutive La Niña wintertime is likewise warmer, features fewer freezes and less snowfall than an average Cardinal Texas winter in general, regardless of La Niña status.

Even when Feb 2021'due south abnormally snowy and cold conditions is removed, this analysis nonetheless holds upwardly.

Digital Manager Kate Winkle contributed to this report.